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Bitcoin Weekly Update #12

This analysis is intended for swing traders or medium-term investors. As a reminder, swing trading is a strategy of speculation in financial markets where an asset is held only for a few days to take advantage of price fluctuations. In this analysis, which you will find every week, I will detail my vision of the market and more specifically the one of Bitcoin. In addition to a technical analysis, I will summarize 3/4 of the news that impacted the market.

Nothing new…

On the weekly time-frame, my long-term vision has not changed. The ideal rebound zone is around $5,000–5,700. The reasons were seen in the weekly analysis #11. As a reminder, my bias will really be bullish if the following conditions are confirmed:

When to go long?

For me, several factors will have to be confirmed:

– Currently the volume has been decreasing in recent months, so a net increase in volume would be required.

– A bullish crossover on the MACD in weekly.

– A Fear and Greed Index that stays low, or even goes even lower.

The ideal rebound zone would coincide with the weekly 200 MA, a curve that has never been broken by Bitcoin. It has always played a huge support role. Thus, it is interesting to place yourself at the purchase around the latter.

In relation to long-term investment, I share with you this chart from @Rhythmtrader on Twitter.

Bitcoin Weekly Update #12 - 4C Trading

On the latter, we can see that: 11,580,000 Bitcoin have not moved for more than a year. Even with an 85% increase in price during this period, these millions of Bitcoins were not sold or exchanged. The “hodlers” — aka slang term, used in the crypto community that refers to people keeping their cryptocurrencies rather than selling them — are therefore still very present.

Also remember that the quantity of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million, the day we reach this limit, no more Bitcoin will be mined. Like gold, which has a limited quantity, if demand increases and supply does not follow, there will be an increase in the price of Bitcoin.

On a daily time-frame:

  • Main resistance: 7900$, in case of confirmed break (full candle), we will see a bullish continuation until 8520$ and/or 9150$ before seeing a fall if the conditions to pass long above are not confirmed.
  • Main support: 6890$, in case of confirmed breakage (full candle), we will have a bearish continuation, with as next potential support the 6000$ and/or 5800$. Then, it will be necessary to monitor that the conditions seen above are confirmed to place the purchase.

In any case, don’t forget your stop-loss and adopt rigorous risk management. This is a trading plan and not a prediction. Invest only what you can afford to lose.

I hope you enjoyed this analysis and wish you an excellent week.

Graphic :

Bitcoin Weekly Update #12 - 4C Trading

News :

  • US arrests Ethereum developer for training North Koreans : Virgil Griffith, who has lately been working at the Ethereum Foundation, has been arrested for allegedly going to a conference in North Korea and offering his know-how in using cryptocurrency.
  • German banks to hold Bitcoin in 2020 : According to Handelsblatt, a new bill proposed allowing German banks to keep BTC could be passed if it got the nods from 16 states. Moreover, the Federal Council has passed the bill this Friday and the new bill could come into effect in January 1st, 2020.
  • UpBit gets hacked more than $50 Million of ether stolen : The exchange suspended deposit and withdrawal services amid the hack. The security has been compromised, resulting in the theft of 342,000 Ether. The exchange assured the victims that they would be compensated.
  • Russia may ban crypto for payment : Russia news outlet, Izvestia reported that there may has been a discussion between Ministry of Finance, financial regulator and country’s central bank about banning crypto as a payment. Moreover, the press department of the central bank emphasizes private crypto cannot be considered as fiat and means of payment. However, there are no official confirmation yet.

Nico, analyst at 4C-trading.

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