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Newsflash of December 20, 2019

Market Cap at 11:16 (UTC) – $191,988,552,609 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 68.1 %
BTC $7,224.65 (0.98%)
ETH $128.91 (1.10%)
XRP $0.188699 (0.13%)

France approved country first ICO


On December 18th, financial regulator of France, Autorité des Marches Financiers (AMF) have approved the first ICO of the country. The offeror, French-ICO has been white-listed on AMF’s website and the offer will start from March, 1 2020 to June 1, 2020.

German new law will recognize crypto as a financial instrument


After January, 1st 2020, crypto assets will be categorized by German Banking Act as a financial instrument. The new law defined crypto as a digital presentation of a value which isn’t issued by the Central Bank but can be accepted based on agreements by parties as mean of payments.

Binance adds Turkish lira pairs


On December, 20th 2019, Binance adds trading pairs for the Turkish lira. The pairs are BNB/TRY, BUSD/TRY and BTC/TRY.
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Market Analysis of December 20, 2019

The marketcap has been moving up (+2.01%) since yesterday. The total capitalization is 190 883 573 095 USD.

Bitcoin totals 130 087 116 312 USD of capitalization for a dominance of 68.2%. Ethereum’s marketcap is 13 978 957 257 USD, followed by Ripple with 8 141 273 760 USD.

Market Sentiment

HOW TO READ THE MARKET SENTIMENT ?

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin closed lower and is now trading around $7138. The $7,000 level seems to serve as a support but we are in a consolidation phase. The BTC seems to be regaining its dominance.

The daily technical situation is positive.

On a 4 hour time horizon, the situation remains positive but we can see signs of a bearish curve.

What to do about it?

The BTC is entering a consolidation phase and stands just above $7000. It would be wise to wait for a test of 6800$ before positioning itself.

  • The supports of the day are at 7000$ — 6500$
  • The resistances of the day are at 7500$ — 8000$

Ethereum Analysis

ETH closed lower at around $127 and is in a consolidation phase.

The daily technical situation is rather negative despite an ICE that is expected to be bullish.

Over a 4 hour time horizon, the technical situation is positive. We therefore have a temporal divergence.

What can we do about it?

The direction that ETH will take is difficult to predict. Waiting for a test of support or resistance would be wise before taking a position.

  • The supports of the day are at 121$ — 114$
  • The resistances of the day are at 133$ — 141$

Conclusion

A retest is necessary before positioning yourself.

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Market Analysis of December 19, 2019

The marketcap has been moving up (3.91) since yesterday. The total capitalization is 187 127 597 121 USD.

Bitcoin totals 127 941 898 700 USD of capitalization for a dominance of 68.3%. Ethereum’s marketcap is 13 775 805 715 USD, followed by Ripple with 8 081 495 485 USD.

Market Sentiment

HOW TO READ THE MARKET SENTIMENT ?

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin closed with a bullish movement (+10%) and is currently trading around $7170. He tested the $7,500 resistance before going down to $7,100.

The daily technical situation is rather positive with a WaveTrends that has just crossed upwards.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the technical situation is positive.

What to do about it?

The BTC could test the $7,500 again or test the $6,500. It would be better to wait for a retest before positioning yourself.

  • The supports of the day are at 7000$ — 6500$
  • The resistances of the day are at 7500$ — 8000$

Ethereum Analysis

ETH closed up and is now trading at around $127.

The daily technical situation is negative.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the technical situation becomes positive.

What to do about it?

As for the btc, a retest would be interesting.

  • The supports of the day are at 121$ — 114$
  • The resistances of the day are at 133$ — 141$

Conclusion

It is necessary to be attentive to the important level and hope for a retest of a support or resistance.

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Newsflash of December 18, 2019

Market Cap at 1:44 (UTC) – $177,129,754,906 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 67.6 %
BTC $6,619.8 (-4.1%)
ETH $121.29 (-8.34%)
XRP $0.181260 (-8.67%)

Eris X launches futures market


Per the press release, ErisX has officially launched their future market. Initially, the exchange will allow their customers to trade physically-delivered Bitcoin futures contract. Moreover, customers can access ErisX futures contracts next year through futures commission merchants.
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Algorithmic Trading – what is it?

In a world in which algorithmic Trading is taking over by a quick storm, 4C-Trading keeps evolving.

A study dating back to 2016 pointed out that 80% of the global currency market transactions are of algorithmic nature, which is an astonishing amount if we quickly compare it with ten years prior: 2006 clocked in on about 25%. Is it a reason to get spooked: The fact that 80% of trades on FX markets are algorithmic? No. But it does mean that we’re in a transition period in which we cannot halt progress. Amid 2018 4C-Trading started working on its very own trading algorithm to enter the world of algorithmic crypto trading.

Ever since that decision, we’ve made swift progress. It is essential to trade in such a way that we generate consistent returns, and humans tend to be less consistent in terms of Trading than an algorithmic approach. As we established above: Algo trading is the future, and 4C-Trading consistently focuses on moving forward.

Near the end of 2019, we had finished a variation of our first fully automated Algorithm. After an astonishing proof set of over 1800 changes to determine what works: And what doesn’t. In seek of an answer to the question: Is algo-trading profitable? With our limitations and to what extent can we, and therefore the client extract trading profits from the market.

Today we can proudly label ourselves, be it partly, as one of few algorithmic trading companies in crypto. It is focusing on creating and improving algorithms of all different types and ranging from a practical approach to market-making (late-stage) to high time frame and low-frequency algorithms, aggressive scalping, and intra-day trade algorithms. It’s all in the pipeline.

Before we continue talking about our Algorithm that has just been launched: what exactly is algorithmic Trading? An easy answer to go over: algorithmic Trading is nothing more than creating trading rules and then translating them to the software. In order to generate a trading system that can be used to trade fully independent. With an “on & off” switch and nothing more. Since when has this become a thing? Algorithmic concepts date back 10s of years. But the significant influx of algorithms Trading actively has been in the last five years.

A market free of algorithms is unimaginable in Crypto, Stocks, and FOREX. So the question is not: “If” you should focus on trading algorithms, the problem is “when.”

Luckily 4C-Trading provides you with an easy to enter space of crypto trading algos. Since the beginning of this month, our core trades are sent out by a sophisticated algorithm while we still retained the best of our human traders.

On top of that: 4C-Trading has had the SmartUSD Algorithm running for over a year profitably now. Consistency is critical, as we discussed earlier, and an algorithm that has proven itself over many different months is a correct way of generating passive income through algorithmic Trading.

We haven’t even talked about the best part: The 4C-Trading ecosystem allows you to “set and forget”: We do all the work, build the algorithms, manage them, improve them, make sure the algorithms can be executing trades on your account via API and more. We serve different risk appetites through our algorithms. Are you solely focused on accumulating USD while not risking significant portfolio risk? 4C-Trading has you covered with our SmartUSD Algorithm. Are you looking for more frequent intra day trades? 4C-Trading has you covered with our Official 4C-Trading Algorithm. Which is purpose built to trade crypto on both BitMEX and Binance: 100% algorithmic. On top of that we still have human traders at work for you to enjoy the insights.


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Let’s dive into the Official 4C-Trading Algorithm since that’s the reason for this blog post. The Algorithm is built and tested on about two years of data. It has handled bear markets and a bull run perfectly fine. At the time of writing, the Algorithm is active on nine different crypto trading pairs. Throughout the two years of testing, it averages about 70 trades per month, with an averaged out the accuracy of 71%. That is not achieved by having “micro targets” the contrary is true: It makes these numbers while delivering an average risk to reward ratio of 1.1 per trade taken. How does that look in “the real world”? Well: On 71% of the 70 trades made monthly, you’re earning 1.10USD per 1.00USD risked per winning the trade.

We have also run a month of live testing. The Algorithm has all sorts of filters to avoid excessive risk when the market isn’t suited for taking risks. Therefore our live trading month (November 2019) only has 39 trades. The results, however, speak for themselves

This is a snippet from our officially released white paper for our members

Eventually, 4C-Trading is proud to be in a position to provide these trading algorithms to our retail and corporate client base. We’re grateful for our dedicated team developing and improving the Systems day in day out. Stand by; in future, we’re planning to release scalping algorithms, aggressive algorithms, SmartETH, and more. That is just the beginning, and we hope to see you on board of our Crypto journey.

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Market Analysis of December 18, 2019

The marketcap has been moving down (-3.51%) since yesterday. The total capitalization is 180 085 298 036 USD.

Bitcoin totals 121744 158628 USD of capitalization for a dominance of 67.6%. Ethereum’s marketcap is 13 552 739 598 USD, followed by Ripple with 8 029 676 162 USD.

Market Sentiment

HOW TO READ THE MARKET SENTIMENT ?

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin closed lower and is currently trading at around $6636. The $6,800 level has given way and we can expect a $6,500 test.

The daily technical situation is negative despite an increasing CCI.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the technical situation remains rather negative but we can see signs of recovery, with the WaveTrends which has just crossed upwards.

What to do about it?

If the 6500 level holds, we can expect a rebound and a return to the 6800, if it does not hold we could test the 6000.

  • The supports of the day are at 6500$ — 6000$
  • The resistances of the day are at 6800$ — 7100$

Ethereum Analysis

TH closed down and is trading at around $122.5.

The daily technical situation remains negative and shows no sign of recovery.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the situation is rather negative also with signs of recovery and the WaveTrends has just crossed the rise.

What to do about it?

If the $121 level holds, we can hope for an increase to $131 to start and if it doesn’t hold we can expect to see $115.

  • The supports of the day are at 121$ — 114$
  • The resistances of the day are at 128$ — 131$

Conclusion

The trend is down and there are no signs of recovery yet.

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Bitcoin Weekly Update #14

This analysis is intended for swing traders or medium-term investors. As a reminder, swing trading is a strategy of speculation in financial markets where an asset is held only for a few days to take advantage of price fluctuations. In this analysis, which you will find every week, I will detail my vision of the market and more specifically the one of Bitcoin. In addition to a technical analysis, I will summarize 3/4 of the news that impacted the market.

Happy birthday Bitcoin !

Exactly one year ago to the dayBitcoin reached its lowest value at around $3,100. What was your state of mind at the time? Bullish or bearish? And currently what is your long-term investment strategy for Bitcoin?

Don’t worry, if you can’t answer this question, I will try through this analysis to give you some ideas to help you make up your mind.

First of all, let’s look at how the Bitcoin behaves in December. As you can see on the graph below, on which I have indicated by light green rectangles the period of December since 2016, we can see that Bitcoin generally follows the same pattern: a slight increase, then a more or less significant decrease towards the end of December/early January. This is perfectly in line with my analysis of Bitcoin Weekly Update #13.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aKdoyN6N/

As a reminder here is what I expect: an increase to 8520$ and/or 9150$ before going lower, ideally to 5800$/6000$ which corresponds to an important liquidity zone and future support zone of the 200MA in weekly.

Possible scenarios in daily periods:

– Main resistance: 7900$, in case of confirmed break ( full candle), we could see a bullish pursuit up to 8520$ and/or 9150$ before seeing a fall if the conditions to go long above are not confirmed.

– Main support: 6890$, in case of confirmed breakage (full candle), we will have a downward continuation, with as next potential support the 6000$ and/or 5800$.

Then, it will be necessary to monitor that the following conditions are confirmed to place a big buy orderbullish crossing of the MACD, Fear and Greed Index very low and a nice volume recovery.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5aPmNS8S/

It should be noted that past performance does not prejudge future performance. This seasonality analysis for Bitcoin confirms my analysis but alone it is of no interest.

If we look at Bitcoin on a daily time-frame, we see that on the Bitcoin CME futures market, a new gap has been created this weekend and it would therefore not be surprising if there were a slight increase to fill it. If you are new to the analysis of gaps in the future Bitcoin market, I invite you to read my article on this subject.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nExH8lj6/

If you are interested in having daily analyses of Bitcoin, do not hesitate to go to the 4C-trading website, you will discover the full scope of our offer! (Trading Bots, trading signals, daily analyses etc…)

Finally, here is a graph that intrigued me this week: the number of #Bitcoin interactions on Twitter. If you are involved in the Blockchain and in the crypotocurrency market in general, you are aware that people’s favorite social network in these fields is Twitter. The fact that the number of interactions is at its lowest could mean a lack of general interest.

https://twitter.com/cryptounfolded/status/1205064752835244034/photo/1

However, as you know so well, the best time to invest in an asset is not when everyone is talking about it (hmm hmm December 2017 when the Bitcoin was making the headlines) but rather when everyone forgets it because it is in a phase of accumulation without real fluctuation. So, if you have done your own research on Bitcoin (DYOR), if you believe in technology and if you are thinking of investing for the long term, consider this graph. Personally, this strengthens me in my bias as a long-term bullish investor.

Don’t forget your stop-loss and adopt rigorous risk management. This is a trading plan and not a prediction. Invest only what you can afford to lose.

I hope you enjoyed this analysis and that the Bitcoin will finally wake up, I wish you an excellent week.


News

  • NYDFS updates crypto guidance : According to the press release, NYDFS is moving toward a new stage which helps the token listing process. The first proposal is NYDFS will provide a website that provides a list of coins which is allowed to be listed. The second proposal creates a framework which can be carried out to create a specific coin listing or adoption policy.
  • IRS & Crypto : The IRS, U.S. Internal Revenue Service, has finished and put in use the latest tax form that will require crypto owners to declare all their crypto-activities : if they received, bought, sold, exchanged, or acquired any cryptocurrencies during the last year.
  • ING & digital assets custody : The Dutch bank : ING would be in the process of developing a technology in order to help their clients to store safely any digital assets. As it was reported, the project of custody is still in an early stage and it would be one of the bank’s several several initiatives around blockchain
  • Fidelity Digital assets to support Ethereum in 2020 : In one of the latest episode of the Scoop, Tom Jessop, actual president of Fidelity Digital Assets, has declared having “done a lot of work on Ethereum” when asked if they would soon offer custody for the digital assets. As a reminder, Fidelity Digital Assets was launched at the beginning of 2019. It offers cryptocurrency custody and trading tools for institutional investors and traders.

Nico, analyst at 4C-trading.

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Market Analysis of December 17, 2019

The marketcap has been moving down (-3.48%) since yesterday. The total capitalization is 186 649 681 676 USD.

Bitcoin totals 125 445 118 403 USD of capitalization for a dominance of 67.2%. Ethereum’s marketcap is 14 437 456 591 USD, followed by Ripple with  8 571 778 944 USD.

Market Sentiment

HOW TO READ THE MARKET SENTIMENT ?

Bitcoin Analysis

The BTC closed lower and is trading at around $6874. A rebound took place at the 6800$ that we use for the moment as support.

The daily technical situation is rather negative despite a CCI showing a recovery.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the technical situation remains negative but the indicators show signs of recovery.

 

What to do about it?

We have to see if the new support holds, if it doesn’t hold, we can expect a 6500$ test. A 7100$ test is also possible. 

  • The supports of the day are at 6800$ — 6500$
  • The resistances of the day are at 7100$ — 7600$

Ethereum Analysis

ETH closed with a bearish movement like the BTC and is trading around $131.4.

The daily technical situation is negative despite a recovering CCI.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the technical situation remains negative but we can see signs of recovery.

What to do about it?

We have to see if the $131 level has become our new support.

  • The supports of the day are at 131$ — 127$
  • The resistances of the day are at 140$ — 151$

Conclusion

A test of the new supports / resistances would confirm these new levels.

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Newsflash of December 16, 2019

Market Cap at 1:30 (UTC) – $194,159,548,311 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 66.6 %
BTC $7,139.49 (+0.45%)
ETH $141.87 (-0.59%)
XRP $0.214255 (-1.55%)

Fidelity is considering to launch support for Ethereum


In a podcast with TheBlock, Fidelity Digital Asset’s President, Tom Jessop said that the company could launch support for Ethereum in 2020. He also said that the company had done a lot of work on Ethereum. However, Tom asserted that institutions were very skeptical toward due to price volatility, regulatory clarity and lack of track record.
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Market Analysis of december 16, 2019

The marketcap has been moving down (-0.81%) since yesterday. The total capitalization is 193 373 081 986 USD.

Bitcoin totals 128 527 445 619 USD of capitalization for a dominance of 66.5%. Ethereum’s marketcap is 15 426 605 193 USD, followed by Ripple with 9 303 551 975 USD.

Market Sentiment

HOW TO READ THE MARKET SENTIMENT ?

Bitcoin Analysis

The Bitcoin closed up, without much movement and continues its evolution in range towards $7050. Buyers can’t take over the sellers.

The daily technical situation is rather negative and the indicators are rather flat.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the technical situation remains rather negative, but the indicators are also rather flat.

 

What to do about it?

The BTC remains in consolidation and does not offer any good trade for the moment. Be patient. A test of the 6800$ is still possible.

  • The supports of the day are at 7000$ — 6500$
  • The resistances of the day are at 7600$ — 7800$

Ethereum Analysis

ETH closed with an upward movement by a doji with market uncertainty and is currently trading at around $140.6. Just like the BTC it continues its evolution in range.

The daily technical situation is rather negative without any sign of recovery.

Over a time horizon of 4 hours, the situation remains negative.

What to do about it?

Wait to see if the $140 level still plays its supporting role and if a rebound is possible. If it doesn’t hold we can expect a $136 test before we see the $132.

  • The supports of the day are at 140$ — 132$
  • The resistances of the day are at 151.5$ — 157$

Conclusion

The BTC and ETH are more likely to be bearish than bullish for the moment.

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