Bitcoin Weekly Update #13

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This analysis is intended for swing traders or medium-term investors. As a reminder, swing trading is a strategy of speculation in financial markets where an asset is held only for a few days to take advantage of price fluctuations. In this analysis, which you will find every week, I will detail my vision of the market and more specifically the one of Bitcoin. In addition to a technical analysis, I will summarize 3/4 of the news that impacted the market.

It’s very long…

The wait on the price of Bitcoin is becoming quite long. Accumulation period? Probably. Let’s see what happened since last week. We got a slight increase of $150 and that’s it. The support / resistance areas announced in the previous weekly analysis remain valid.

As a reminder:

On a daily time-frame:

– Main resistance: 7900$, in case of confirmed break ( full candle), we will see a bullish pursuit up to 8520$ and/or 9150$ before seeing a drop if the conditions to pass long above are not confirmed.

– Main support: 6890$, in case of confirmed break ( full candle), we will have a bearish continuation, with as next potential support the 6000$ and/or 5800$. Then, it will be necessary to watch that the conditions seen above are confirmed to place the purchase.

Over a shorter period (4 hours), and now I am no longer talking to long-term investors or swing traders but more to scalpers, we will notice a potential Cup & Handle (chartist configuration rather bullish). This would therefore go in favor of a rise to break the $7900 resistance as indicated above. Nevertheless without a real volume recovery, a bullish crossover over the weekly MACD period and a low Fear & Greed Index, I would consider it as a “bull trap” aka a trap for those who see the Bitcoin rise very quickly. I am speaking in this situation again in the weekly period.

 
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DUqxr4VM/

Note that this week we had the opportunity to see an extremely bullish indicator that was triggered on the Bitcoin. It is the Golden Cross. This corresponds to the crossing of two moving lines: the 50MA and the 100MA. Here it is the 50MA in red that goes above the 100MA in orange. This is a very powerful and bullish indicator.

 
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BcuCheuZ/

Thus, in view of this “Golden Cross”, from a long-term point of view I am only waiting for the MACD to cross over in a weekly time-frame to become a real bull.

Another thing that makes me want to Hodl Bitcoin is this type of graph where we can see future estimates of the price of Bitcoin based on mathematical analyses like Stock To Flow. For more information on this, I invite you to visit this site which makes the model and related explanations available for free.

 
https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1203696668454969345/photo/1

In any case, don’t forget your stop-loss and adopt a strict risk management approach. This is a trading plan and not a prediction. Invest only what you can afford to lose.

I hope you enjoyed this analysis and that the Bitcoin will finally wake up, I wish you an excellent week.

News :

  • Ukraine published new law which prevents money laundering using crypto : Ukraine has recently approved a new anti-laundering law which also includes virtual assets in the list. Per the document, users who send over 30,000 hriven (approx. $1,300) must report to the local authority about the identity of the sender and receiver. Additionally, if the transaction worth less than 30,000 hriven, the sender only need to provide the public address for monitor purpose.
  • Microsoft teams up with Enjin to offer crypto collectible reward : Do good work, earn a “badger.”That’s the idea behind a new incentives scheme launched by Microsoft in partnership with blockchain gaming project Enjin. This announcement led to an increase of more than 80% for ENJBTC. 4C-Trading has mentioned Enjin many times. Both technically and fundamentally. If you don’t have time to follow all the crypto projects with high potential, let yourself be guided by professionals !
 
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0YSssbnF/
  • China’s central bank to test digital currency : A report by Caijing has pointed out that China’s Central Bank has partner with several state-owned companies to test digital currency and electronic payment. Moreover, the report also says that cities in Shenzen and Suzhou will be the first few cities to be chosen for the test.
  • French Central Bank may launches a digital currency in 2020 : According to AFP, French Central Bank governor, Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that they wanted to start running experiments rapidly and would launch a call for projects before the end of the first quarter of 2020. Moreover, the official website of French Central Bank also confirmed that the country could create a central bank digital currency.

Nico, analyst at 4C-trading.

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